The Wright & Dickey Contract Conundrum

If they haven't already mapped out their plan regarding the futures of David Wright and R.A. Dickey, Sandy Alderson and Co. will have to quickly do so and spring into action once the 2013 season concludes.  Although the Mets hold contract options for both Dickey and Wright for next year, their long-term fates need to be decided between October and the end of March.  Simply exercising their options and letting the matter sit can't be the plan.  Here's why:

Both before and during this season, Wright and Dickey have been candid when asked whether or not they wanted to remain with the Mets.  At this point, it almost seems as if their answers are carbon copies.  They have emphatically stated that they want to remain with the Mets and be part of the long-term solution.  However, they've also indicated their strong desire to win and a need to know what the Mets' direction is before making a decision.  The pressing issue here, is the fact that both are unlikely to negotiate in-season next year.  Meaning, if the Mets are to extend them it has to be done this fall/winter.  I attended last Sunday's season ticket holder Q & A at Citi Field, and Sandy Alderson was quick and to the point when asked about the futures of Wright and Dickey.  He dodged tons of questions, but not that one.  Without hesitation, he noted that although the Mets hold options on both players, he's not comfortable going into next season without both of them locked up long-term.  He said that he "fully expects" Wright and Dickey to be Mets not only next year but for years to come.  I believe Alderson wants them to be here, and I believe the Mets have the payroll flexibility to make it happen.  A potential hurdle, though, could be convincing both Wright and Dickey to stay.

In order to get the Wright and Dickey contract extensions taken care of, Alderson needs to be quick and decisive.  He has to approach and present them with immediate offers.  Moreover, those offers have to be accopmanied by an explanation of the Mets' long-term motives.  What is Alderson's grand plan?  What will the payroll look like going forward?  How does Alderson plan to fill the roster inadequacies alongside Wright, Dickey, and the other holdovers?  These have to be contract offers wrapped up in a concise presentation of the type of organization these men will be playing for after those contracts are potentially signed. 

Just how does Sandy Alderson show Wright and Dickey that they should stay?  I doubt this year's final win total will matter much, but I'm sure it wouldn't hurt for the team to finish strong.  Alderson recently made a series of comments to Mike Francesa on WFAN, intimating that "evaluation time" is over.  He stressed the need for serious roster turnover, which will likely be accomplished through trades.  Alderson has to fill Wright and Dickey in on how he plans to improve the club, while stating that if 2013 isn't a year where the Mets are likely to contend, 2014 certainly will be.  If needed, ownership should step in and assure both players of the financial health of the franchise going forward. 

From 2011 to 2012, the Mets' payroll was slashed from $143 million to $95 million.  It was an enormous year to year reduction.  The drop was necessary because of the still ongoing Madoff litigation, and due to monetary losses the team had sustained.  Now that the litigation is over and things have calmed down, the payroll for 2013 is expected to remain about the same as it was in 2012, or potentially be slightly higher.  After next season, the Mets will have roughly $40 million coming off the books when Johan Santana and Jason Bay's contracts expire.  Even if you factor in potential raises to Wright and Dickey, the team should have a significant chunk of money to spend in free agency after 2013. 

After he was acquired via trade in1983, Keith Hernandez was counting the days until he'd be able to depart via free agency.  Once he saw what was on the horizon, though, his intentions quickly changed.  The rest is history.  Much like in 1983, there are lots of reasons to be optimistic about the future of the Mets.  Yes, the Mets will likely be coming off four consecutive losing seasons.  Still, strong teams are built with strong starting pitching.  And in Jonathon Niese, Dillon Gee, Matt Harvey, Collin McHugh, and soon Zack Wheeler, the Mets will have five young, cost effective, talented contributors - two of which have legitimate top of the rotation potential.  If R.A. Dickey is here, it makes the group that much stronger.  The state of the bullpen and offense is far more unsettled than that of the rotation, but the situation is far from dire.  Ruben Tejada, Ike Davis, and Daniel Murphy can all be contributors to a contending club.  It's clear, though, that the outfield has to be re-made.  The bullpen has a few solid contributors in Bobby Parnell and Josh Edgin, but it will have to be overhauled as well.

To me, Sandy Alderson has three options when it comes to handling the futures of David Wright and R.A. Dickey.  Option one is signing both long-term this winter.  Option two, if both reject contract extensions, is to trade both this winter.  Option three, would be to trade them during the 2013 season (the least appealing option).  Those are the only three options, due to the fact that the Mets can't afford to let Wright and Dickey walk for nothing.  And if they hit free agency, that's exactly what will happen.  However, if Fred Wilpon allows Sandy Alderson to do his job, option one should be the only scenario on the table for the Mets.

I'm of the opinion that the Mets' fanbase has been through such hell over the last four years, that letting Wright and Dickey go would be the last straw for many.  If Alderson decided that the right move was to deal both in an effort to acquire a host of young impact players, I suppose I'd be able to swallow it.  Still, I simply don't believe that would be the right course of action.  Wright will turn 30 in December, and is the face of the franchise.  He's expressed over and over his desire to stay.  His love of the team and the fans is unrivaled, and his work ethic is impeccable.  If the Mets sign him to a 6 year extension with a 7th year option, those last few years may turn out to be less than stellar.  However, there's no reason to expect a downturn from Wright any time soon.  As far as Dickey is concerned, he's not only become one of the best pitchers in the league, he's become a fan favorite because of the man he is off the field.  Like Wright, there's no reason to anticipate a precipitous decline from Dickey.  He'll be 38 next season, and while he throws a harder knuckle ball than most, his arm has been through much less stress than pretty much every other pitcher his age.  Both men should be part of the long-term solution.  They should be built around, not pawned off for other pieces who may turn out to be something of worth.

It makes zero sense for David Wright to stay with the Mets from 2004 to 2013, riding the highs and lows (but mostly lows) only to depart prior to the 2014 season - when the Mets should have both the talent and spending ability to contend.  As far as Dickey is concerned, the type of contract offer the Mets would need to present him with would likely be less than half of what they would have to guarantee to Wright (both in years and dollars).  These deals must get done. 

The Mets need to sign these two men long-term to bolster the future quality of the product on the field, and as a sign of stability and seriousness to their fanbase.  They need to do it to show that the worst is over, and that the team is again ready to rise from the ashes. 
 

I Yearn for Citi to Shake like Shea

Whenever my Father comes with my friends and I to Mets games, he opts to park in a $5 lot that's a 10 minute walk to the ballpark along Roosevelt Avenue.  He'll park there, meet us in McFadden's before the game, and we'll walk back with him after the game is over.  As we were walking along Roosevelt Avenue last Saturday night, after the Mets had been trounced by the Braves, I remembered that I had taken that same walk after the game on October 19th, 2006.  That night was of course Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS (seen in the picture above).  A night where I went straight from work to the ballpark, and sat in the Upper Deck between third base and left field while I waited for the game to start. 

As the stadium began to fill, a palpable buzz rose up.  In the moments before the game began, the scene had turned into a frenzy, a kind of madness even.  It was incredible.  It was deafening. People were screaming, jumping up and down, and waving towels (although I don't like the use of rally towels, preferring to let my hands generate noise, it was quite a sight on October 19th, 2006), all in anticipation of what we hoped would be the Mets winning the National League Pennant.  We all know how that game turned out.  Endy Chavez made the greatest catch I've ever seen, and I'm pretty sure I blacked out during the insanity that ensued afterwards - the hugging of strangers, screams of amazemenet, and feeling of the Upper Deck shaking - so badly, in fact, that my Father nearly left the section because he thought it was going to collapse.  I told him at the time that if it did, I'd go down with it.  The Upper Deck didn't collapse, Reyes' rope in the 9th didn't fall in, and Carlos Beltran was felled by a pitch no one could've hit.  After two more years of contention but ultimate disappointment, Shea Stadium met the wrecking ball.  And since then, save for the last out of Johan Santana's no hitter, Citi Field has felt empy - even when it's full.

Now, it's important to point out that I'm comparing extremes.  There were times at Shea during the summer of 2006 when I would be aggravated at the lack of fan noise.  However, I had a Saturday plan back then, and the lack of noise could be partly attributed to the many families who were in attendance.  Still, even though Shea Stadium was lacking in amenities and devoid of light in the concourses, it was a place where Mets fans felt united.  It was a place where you couldn't hear yourself think during big moments, when the crowd would engulf you. 

I love Citi Field itself.  I love how it looks, the wide open concourses, the seats being closer to the field, and much more.  However, I hate how it sounds.  The feeling of detachment between the fans and the game is disturbing.  I understand that Citi Field has been the home of a non-contending ballclub during the second half of each season since it opened.  However, that doesn't excuse fans from making absolutely no noise during the first haf of each of those seasons.  It doesn't excuse the fact that when I clap with two strikes, I feel like I'm doing something wrong.  It doesn't excuse the fact that when I stand up during a big moment, people around me look at me like I'm insane - their seering eyes demanding me to sit down. 

I suppose the indifference and silence at Citi Field is due to a multitude of reasons: People are content to hang out instead of focusing on the game, to walk around and BS with eachother.  Some are unhappy with ownership, and all are unhappy with how the last four seasons have spiraled downhill after the All-Star break.  Still, that doesn't make my feeling of detatchment when attending a Mets game acceptable.
I miss Shea Stadium.  I miss the Mets playing meaningful games in September and October.  Most of all, I miss the feeling of unity that used to wash over me every time I walked into Shea - whether it was as a 9 year old who watched Sid Fernandez from the Mezzanine in September of 1993, or as a 22 year old who was there for most of the Playoff games during October of 2006.  I miss being able to clap without feeling odd, or being able to stand without those around me wondering why.

No one knows when the Mets will play their next meaningful September and October games.  There could be a miracle this year, it could happen next year, or the year after.  I just hope that when those games roll around, it won't be noiseless indifference that fills Citi Field.  I hope that those in attendance realize the tradition that its fans are supposed to be upholding - the tradition of being a raucous, supportive home crowd.  A crowd that hangs on every pitch, and fills the ballpark with a palpable buzz. 

While I was taking that walk along Roosevelt avenue after the game last Saturday night, I realized something else.  I had more of an empty feeling that night than I did when I was taking the same walk in the rain sometime around 11:30 PM on October 19th, 2006,  minutes after the Mets' season had ended.  Back then I had been a part of an amazing experience, even though it ended in agony.  Last Saturday, I had simply been one of 25,000 people in an emotionless ballpark, experiencing nothing special at all.  I yearn for that to change, for Citi to erupt like Shea.  Whenever it is that the Mets finally break through, the fans of this team have to realize that it's us who have the power to do that.  That we need to stop walking around, get to our seats, and whip the place into a frenzy.           

The Absurdity of Comparing the 1977 Mets to the 2012 Mets

This past Thursday, a man with a clear agenda penned an article likening the 2012 Mets to the 1977 Mets.  Not just regarding the on-field product (which is ridiculous enough by itself), but regarding all aspects surrounding the team: attendance, outside perception, minor league talent, near-term chances, and more.  Allow me to dissect and rebut Howard Megdal's article piece by piece, before tying it all up very nicely:

 Back then, as now, a group of popular players had just left: Tom Seaver, Tug McGraw; Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran.

 "Group" is defined as two or more, so Megdal is using the bare minimum number of players in order to refer to his aforementioned example as a group.  His first mistake is comparing Tug McGraw to Carlos Beltran.  Tug McGraw was one of the most beloved players in the history of the organization.  Carlos Beltran, as I've pointed out myself, should have been beloved, but wasn't.  He was loved by some fans, while most others' opinion of him fell somewhere between hate and indifference.  Carlos Beltran was traded because he was a pending free agent with a history of knee problems, who the Mets were not going to re-sign.  The move was accepted by most Mets fans, and netted the team Zack Wheeler - who is now viewed by most as one of the top two pitching prospects in all of baseball.  Megdal compared losing Seaver to losing Reyes.  There are two problems here.  The first is the fact that Seaver was the face of the franchise who led the Mets to a World Championship, a man who cried when he was traded.  Reyes, as dynamic as he was, should never be compared to Seaver.  Second, despite what many like to spew as fact, the Mets made an effort to retain Jose Reyes.  Sandy Alderson advised Reyes' agents that the Mets would be willing to guarantee a contract at 5 years totaling $80 million, with an easily attainable option that would've brought the total of the deal to 6 years totaling $100 million had Reyes stayed relatively healthy.  Reyes' agents told Alderson there was no way they would go for that, which is why no formal offer was made.  Reyes told the Marlins he'd leave if they offered him one more dollar than the Mets.  He left for Miami, didn't cry, and has since bitched and moaned that the Mets made no effort to keep him.

 The fans were frustrated, then and now, at an ownership group that wouldn't or couldn't spend enough money to keep the team from deteriorating. 

 Megdal is correct in his assertion that the fans are frustrated.  However, that doesn't make this 1977.  Had the Mets traded David Wright last month, before letting R.A. Dickey walk away at the end of the season instead of picking up his option, he'd have a point.  The first part didn't happen and the second part won't happen, so he has no point.  Ownership was unable to spend large dollars during the off-season because of pending litigation that has since come to a close.  The Mets are 55-60, in third place in the NL East.  Even with their recent tailspin, they've exceeded most expectations in what was seen as a year to evaluate the roster.  The team is still in a precarious spot, but nowhere near as precarious a spot as it was in prior to the Bernard Madoff situation being cleared up.  If the team lowers the payroll further, Megdal may have been proven partially right.  However, no one expects the payroll to drop again in 2013. Moreover, the team certainly isn't "deteriorating." Treading water is a more accurate description.  If they were deteriorating, as Megdal claims, they wouldn't be focusing most of their energy on signing David Wright to a contract extension during the off-season.  They'd be sizing up logical trade partners for July of 2013. 

 The 2012 Mets are playing at a 77-win pace, whereas their 1977 counterparts finished 64-98.

 34 games under .500 and eight games under .500?  Those are equivalent records, apparently.  Thanks for shedding light on that, Howard.

 But their rosters aren't dissimilar, statistically: Both teams had five everyday players worth at least one win above replacement player. The 1977 fivesome was Lenny Randle (4.0), John Stearns (3.2), Steve Henderson (2.5), John Milner (1.6) and Lee Mazzilli (1.0). The 2012 fivesome is David Wright (5.6), Daniel Murphy (1.8), Ruben Tejada (1.8), Scott Hairston (1.5) and Josh Thole (1.1).

Before going into a hysterical player by player comparison, realize this: In 1977, three Mets combined to lead the team in homers with 12 apiece.  The 2012 Mets have three players who have already comfortably exceeded that number with 47 games remaining.  In 1977, Steve Henderson led the team with 65 RBI's.  David Wright has already driven in 74 this season.  Now, my favorite individual comparison is Lenny Randle vs. David Wright (one which Megdal has claimed to not be outrageous).  Lenny Randle was a .257 lifetime hitter who finished his career with 27 home runs.  David Wright is a .302 lifetime hitter, who has hit 27 home runs or more four times in a single season.  Throw WAR at me, and throw comparative ages at me all you want.  You know what trumps both of those?  Traditional statistics and common sense.  The 2012 Mets aren't making the Playoffs (barring something incredible happening).  They do, however, have a solid core of players to build around in David Wright, Ruben Tejada, Daniel Murphy, Ike Davis, Dillon Gee, R.A. Dickey, Jonathon Niese, Matt Harvey, Josh Edgin, and others.  The 1977 Mets had a core with far less promise than those mentioned above.

...young, talented Pat Zachry and Craig Swan (0.7 and 0.5, respectively), stood ready to play the parts of Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler.  If that appears to sell Harvey and Wheeler short, consider that Zachry had been a huge prospect and was the center of the Seaver trade, while Swan went on to win an E.R.A. title. The median outcome for the two prospects can't be much different than what the Mets ultimately got from Zachry and Swan.

Above, we see Howard Megdal, who is not a professional scout or a time traveler, declaring that the "median outcome" of Matt Harvey (4 Major League starts) and Zack Wheeler (zero Major League starts) "can't be much different" than the eventual careers of Zachry and Swan.  He did go on to say in his next paragraph that Harvey and Wheeler could turn into Seaver and Koosman, but that was simply glossed over as being unlikely due to the fact that it doesn't fit his narrative.  Pat Zachry averaged a shade over five strikeouts per 9 innings during the course of his career.  Craig Swan averaged 4.9 K's per 9 innings during his career.  Now, both Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler could flame out immediately.  Both could become Hall of Famers.  There's really no reason to speculate on that, and there's no facts to predict what their professional careers will look like.  What is a fact is that Wheeler and Harvey both have much better pure stuff than Pat Zachry or Craig Swan ever had.  Mentioning that didn't fit Megdal's narrative, though.

But it is unclear that anything other than hope for the future separates the 2012 team from the 1977 team, which, for those who may not remember, went on to become a 66-96 1978 team and a 63-99 1979 team, before the Mets were sold to a new owner.

Yes, Howard, I know: you want the Wilpon's to sell the team.  I don't understand, though, how you can write with a straight face that "anything other than hope for the future" separates the 1977 Mets from the 2012 Mets.  Here's a few things that separate them:

• The 1977 Mets drew 1.06 million fans, averaging 13,504 per game.  The 2012 Mets have already drawn 1.65 million fans (on pace for around 2.4 million for the season), while averaging 29,569 per game.
•  The 1977 Mets traded the most popular player in franchise history during the season, while the 2012 Mets did the opposite in attempting to lock up David Wright long-term, only to be told that negotiations would have to wait until after the season.
• The 1977 Mets played in Shea Stadium and were seen locally on WOR.  The 2012 Mets play at Citi Field, and can be seen locally on SNY, the television network they own.
• The season after 1977 saw the Mets win 66 games.  Barring something unforeseen, the season after 2012 will see them win far more games than that, while the team hosts the All-Star game.  In addition, if the baseball writers do their job, it will also see Mike Piazza inducted into the Hall of Fame as the first position player to have a Mets cap on his plaque.  

The 1977 team spawned a mess that continued to spiral downhill from 1978 to 1983 with six more losing seasons, before the Mets finally turned it around in 1984.  The 2012 Mets may yet finish at .500.  And even if they don't, I don't think it can be adequately argued that anyone expects 2013-2018 to look anything like 1978 through 1983 did. 

Do the Mets have issues? Yes.  Do most fans wish the Wilpon's would sell? Probably.  However, comparing 1977 to 2012 is pure insanity, and does nothing but add more negative vibes to the ones that were thrown towards this team prior to the season, and the ones that have been hurled at them since their recent slide.  The Mets need a Catcher and three Outfielders for next year.  Talk about that.  They need Sandy Alderson and Co. to be more creative.  Talk about that.  The front office and fans need to get some clarity from Ownership regarding what the payroll will be going forward.  Talk about that.  Or you can choose to be positive and talk about R.A. Dickey potentially winning the Cy Young award, or David Wright's great year, Ruben Tejada's emergence as one of the better shortstops in the league, Terry Collins' leadership, or the rise of Matt Harvey.  But, please, don't use your own agenda to attempt to create a reality that is anything but.  It wastes our time and insults our intelligence.   

32-27...Please?

As the Mets' official 1967 Yearbook displays above, things could be a lot worse in Met land.  Before last night's game, I began to think of what I wanted out of the rest of the season.  Who I wanted to see succeed, the type of performances I wanted to see, where I wanted the team to end up.  As the game began, a record popped into my mind: 33-27.  The Mets would have to go 33-27 the rest of the way in order to finish the season above .500 at 82-80.  Although it seems the season has already slipped away, my body refused to drift off to sleep as last night's fiasco of a game twisted and turned to its eventual conclusion at around 2 AM Eastern time.  And when the game was over, a new record popped into my head: 32-27.

Regardless of what your feelings are regarding the team's inactivity before and during today's trade deadline - whether you hated, loved, or were indifferent to the lack of moves, the deadline has passed.  The Mets' chances to alter the roster drastically are gone.  Now, you can root for the team to completely tank in order to net a higher pick in next year's draft, or you  can root for them to succeed.  I'll be doing the latter.  A first half that was so full of promise has devolved rapidly, and the Mets find themselves at 50-53, nowhere near the position they were in when the first half drew to a close.

The first half featured brilliant starting pitching and timely hitting that was able to partially negate the horrendous bullpen.  After Johan Santana's ankle was stepped on, and Dillon Gee went down with a freak season ending blood clot, the matter was compounded when R.A. Dickey timed his only poor stretch of the season along with the aforementioned strokes of bad luck.  The Mets' bullpen is a disaster regardless, and the defense and offense have left a lot to be desired, but the Mets' fate was likely sealed when the starting pitching went from a strength to a weakness.

Coming into the season, I felt the team would hover around .500, and potentially reach the mid 80's in wins.   Miracles have happened, and I'm not completely writing the season off with 59 games left to play (as Mets fans have seen first hand, leads can evaporate rather quickly).  As the team is currently constituted, it doesn't appear as they're about to make a miracle run -which is why I'm asking for 32-27.  If the Mets go 32-27 the rest of the way, they'll finish at 82-80.  It would be their first winning season since 2008, and it would mean that they avoided what befell them over the last three seasons: a second half collapse.  The move the team has taken in the right direction would be reflected in their win total, and a positive second half would hopefully help to show David Wright that the team is close to being a legitimate contender, and in turn facilitate a long-term contract extension.

82-80 is not what you want to strive for year after year.  Still, if the Mets finish with that record, it will mean that they exceeded expectations - that the season as a whole was indisputably positive.  The Mets haven't been able to say that since 2006.  So, Mets, give us 32-27.  And if you can shove some more wins in there, all the better.

From Gooden to Harvey

Let's start with the following -  I am not comparing Matt Harvey to Dwight Gooden.  I repeat, I am not comparing Matt Harvey to Dwight Gooden.  However, here's what I believe to be an indisputable fact:  The Mets drafted and developed Gooden, who exploded into the Majors in 1984.  Last night in Arizona, Matt Harvey displayed the best pure stuff we've seen from a starting pitcher who was drafted, developed, and debuted with the Mets since the Doctor.  The previous sentence is both a knock on the Mets' scouting and development over the past 28 years, and an endorsement of Harvey's arsenal of pitches.  Had the Mets not foolishly traded Scott Kazmir in 2004, he would've come up and been the guy who had the best stuff since Dwight.  They dealt him, and it didn't happen.

Between 1985 and 2011, a plethora of Mets draftees went through the Minors and came up to the bigs.  Some had enormous expectations, some didn't.  Contrary to what some think, Sid Fernandez and David Cone were drafted by the Dodgers and Royals, respectively.  So, they don't count.  In the early 90's, Bill Pulsipher, Paul Wilson, and Jason Isringhausen were touted as "Generation K."  They'd come up together and bring the Mets back to respectability.  A combination of overuse in the minors, injuries, and in Isringhausen's case his temper, prevented any of them from reaching the Majors and displaying the talent behind the hype.  Bobby Jones came up in 1994 and became a  rotation mainstay, but he got by on guile.  Octavio Dotel had some moments in 1999, but his arsenal was still lacking a bit.  Mike Pelfrey was tinkered with before he came up in 2006, and never displayed the plus-plus fastball he was supposed to have.  Philip Humber got hurt, and despite throwing a perfect game for the White Sox, didn't do a thing for the Mets.  Jonathon Niese has very good stuff, but his fastball is tame compared to Harvey's.  Dillon Gee is a finesse pitcher.

So, if we span from 1984 to 2012, and are forced to name the two pitchers with the best pure stuff the Mets have drafted and developed before making their debut for the team?  It's Gooden 1, and  Harvey 2.  I'll now repeat a third time:  I'm not putting Matt Harvey on the level of Dwight Gooden.  Doc was a once in a generation talent who was almost impossibly good.  However, what we saw on the mound last night in Arizona was the best pitcher the Mets have produced since. 

Last night in Arizona, Matt Harvey took the ball and made us all open our eyes.  He may yet turn out the be the #2 type starter most scouts have projected him to be, but last night's stuff said otherwise.  His fastball sat mostly 93-96, touching 98 MPH.  He painted the black with it, ran it up, ran it in. His slider was at times filthy, coming in anywhere from the high 80's to 91 MPH.  His curve had a sharp, late break.  And he located it.  His change is still developing, but he wasn't afraid to use it.  He came right after the hitters, getting ahead in the count and then busting them in.  Imagine?  A starting pitcher the Mets developed who isn't afraid to throw inside.  While he was striking out 11 Diamondbacks and giving up only 3 hits and 0 runs over his 5.1 inning Major League debut, Harvey also displayed poise on the mound.  He was calm, he was decisive, and he worked quickly.  It was a thrill to watch.   

No one can state whether last night was a sign of how things will be for Harvey going forward.  What we do know, is that he has the stuff and makeup necessary to dominate.  And that's extremely exciting.  If he becomes a #2 type starter, fine.  But he clearly has the potential to be much more than that.  Even more exciting, is the fact that Zack Wheeler (according to every scout and observer) has better stuff than Matt Harvey.  According to Sandy Alderson, Wheeler won't see the Majors in 2012.  He should be in AAA in the coming weeks, which would make him a candidate to make the 2013 starting rotation out of Spring Training.

Any number of things may prevent Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler from reaching their full potential.  One of them has made it to the big leagues, while the other is extremely close.  For all the misfortune that's been heaped on this team, wouldn't it be rewarding if Harvey and Wheeler fulfilled the potential they clearly possess?  Last night, Matt Harvey showed that he has the stuff to do it.  Now, Mets fans are waiting on Wheeler.  Once the two of them are together in the rotation, all that's left to do is pray to the Baseball Gods.  To ask them to allow these two to become special, and turn the dreams of Mets fans into reality.   

What's the Plan?

                                          From L to R: Sandy Alderson, Paul DePodesta, & J.P. Ricciardi


This afternoon, before the Mets fell to 1-11 in their last 12 games, in a sloppy mess of a ballgame to Washington, the Miami Marlins began their fire-sale.  In a season that's slipping further and further away from the Mets' grasp, fans can at least take some solace in the fact that Jose Reyes' dream destination has become a combustible and comical mess in less than 4 months.  Many saw this coming as soon as the Marlins opened up their wallets this winter (albeit not this quickly).  However, even though their current plan was borne out of a disaster of a season, at least the Marlins currently have a plan.  A plan for 2012 - which is to sell off pieces that they don't think fit and/or will soon be out of their price range, in an effort to make the team better in the long run.  What the hell is the Mets' plan?

When Sandy Alderson took over a few years ago, along with his top lieutenants Paul DePodesta and J.P. Ricciardi, great things were expected from them.  Unfortunately, the Madoff mess that lingered into Spring Training of this year severely limited their maneuverability.  Still, they made two astute moves last season.  The money saver was dealing Francisco Rodriguez, and assuring his albatross of an option wouldn't kick in for 2012.  The second, which appears to be an absolute gem, was dealing pending free agent Carlos Beltran to the Giants for Zack Wheeler.  Wheeler is now viewed by most as one of the top overall prospects in all of baseball, and is being lumped into the conversation with Dylan Bundy of the Orioles as the single best pitching prospect in the game.  Last summer, even with the Mets on the fringe of contention, Alderson and Co. knew they had to make those deals.  They made those deals because they were too good to pass up.  If they passed them up, they would've been doing so with the hope of the off chance the team somehow made it to the Postseason.  They knew their Playoff chances were microscopic, so they made the deals.

During the offseason after 2011, no one expected the Mets to be a potential destination for any of the top free agents on the market.  With the Madoff situation still hovering over the franchise, there simply wasn't any way the Mets were going to snag any of the upper crust guys (save for Jose Reyes, who could've stayed if he was willing to sign for 5 years and $80 million, with an easily attainable option that would've guaranteed him $100 million if he stayed relatively healthy).  For all the good Sandy Alderson did by jettisoning Francisco Rodriguez and importing Wheeler, he was equally bad this winter.  Instead of being creative in the trade market, he elected to spend the majority of his allocated cash on mediocre bullpen arms (Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch).  He didn't make a move for a backup catcher, content to have Mike Nickeas in that spot.  He knew his team was left-handed to a fault on the offensive end, yet did nothing to address the issue.  He kept Miguel Batista around, and refused to let go of him until the results reached the point of being stunningly bad.

Despite Alderson and Co's relative inactivity, the Mets surprised pretty much everyone by starting the year 46-39 (with players, it should be noted, who were mostly holdovers from the Omar Minaya regime).  Their record most likely would've been 50-35 or better if they had a mediocre bullpen.  Unfortunately for them, they had the worst bullpen in the Majors.  As I mentioned earlier this week, the Mets' brass may have decided once Dillon Gee went on the shelf, and once Johan Santana looked to be heading there, that they wouldn't deal any prospects of consequence for bullpen help.  In order for the Mets to have acquired a difference maker for the pen, they would've had to part with some actual prospects.  They weren't willing to do that.  Even moderate improvements to the pen would've likely staved off the current 1-11 free-fall, but the only improvement came internally in the form of Josh Edgin.

The poor winter bullpen acquisitions and recent period of inactivity and indecisiveness isn't a complete indictment on the Alderson regime.  There have been good moves, and there have been bad moves, but it's impossible and unfair to judge a man and his staff after such a small period of time.  Still, it is fair to ask at this point if other than waiting for contracts to expire and prospects to develop, the 2012 Mets currently have a plan of any sort.  It was difficult to watch the inaction of the front office, and be subjected to meltdown after meltdown by this atrocity of a bullpen as the losses piled up.  It was insulting to watch Miguel Batista start games because Alderson simply refused to dig through the scrap heap for anyone who may have done better - just like he refused to replace Mike Nickeas with any other Catcher on the face of the Earth.  It's as if the Mets were happy to basically forfeit games.  And a team that's happy to forfeit games should ultimately be open to trading players who aren't part of the long-term solution, right?

According to Alderson, the Mets were "buyers" last week.  As of last night, they were "observers."  Alderson noted when asked that he was unlikely to deal players such as Scott Hairston and Tim Byrdak in order to bring back prospects.  He didn't elaborate as far as his reasoning was concerned - perhaps because there's no appropriate reason to hang onto players who aren't part of the long-term solution when the team appears to be heading nowhere.  Regardless of the Mets' current period of hellish play, they're not a lost cause.  They have talent, just not enough.  With a 2013 rotation that may include R.A. Dickey, Johan Santana, Jonathon Niese, Dillon Gee, and Matt Harvey (with Zack Wheeler on the cusp), they have the arms to compete.  They also have a mess of a bullpen, a backup catcher who isn't an adequate Major Leaguer (with no viable long-term alternative close in the Minors), a Left Fielder who may very well be the worst player in all of baseball, and seemingly redundant players in Lucas Duda and Ike Davis.        

Last year, when the team realized their Postseason chances were slim, they made moves.  They were proactive.  In the process, they netted one of the top prospects in all of baseball in Zack Wheeler.  No one is expecting that type of return for a Scott Hairston or Tim Byrdak type, but I'm sure one of those players would net a prospect who could turn out to be better than whatever the hell the current incarnation of Jason Bay is, or be better than Mike Nickeas.  Or perhaps they could net a prospect that would help out next year in the bullpen, or be a backup at short, or help out anywhere else on the diamond.  Maybe they could entice a team to bite on Ike Davis or Lucas Duda, knowing full well that Duda can't play the outfield, and that his only other viable position is first base.  Perhaps the front office could think of dealing one of their top prospects who may be blocked at the big league level for a prospect from another team in the same predicament.  Unfortunately, it seems that the front office is content to sit on their hands.  To not buy, not sell, but observe.  Mets fans didn't expect a World Champion overnight, but what they did expect was a front office that did everything in its power to improve the team and move it in the right direction.  Right now, the front office appears to be asleep at the wheel while in neutral.  And that's simply unacceptable.

46-39 Has Become 47-48. What to Do?

After entering the final day of the first half with a record of 46-39, the Mets have gone into a tailspin.  The reasons for the tailspin are numerous, and the ways in which they've lost games has been maddening.  There has been horrendous starting pitching, bad managing, a failure to come through with runners in scoring position (something the team excelled at for most of the season), and inaction by the front office over the last few weeks as far as addressing any of the above concerns.

Saturday, the Mets started Miguel Batista.  A move that was akin to a forfeit.  A move that was a slap in the face to the players who have been fighting all year, and to the fans who had to sit through the last act of the play that was the Miguel Batista show.  The fans knew Batista would pitch poorly, and so did the organization.  He did what everyone knew he would do, and is no longer part of the 25 man roster.  Today's game was far more painful than yesterday's, since the Mets should have won it easily.  Two key moments stick out:

The first:  With Kirk Nieuwenhuis on 2nd base and no one out in extra innings, the Mets elected to not bunt the winning run over to 3rd base.  Why did they elect against the bunt?  Because Mike Nickeas would be the batter in the spot that conceivably would've had Kirk at 3rd with one out.  The Mets have so little faith in Nickeas' ability to put a ball in play and end the game, that they decided against the conventional move.  Nickeas ended up batting with runners on 1st and 2nd and none out, and laid down a horrible bunt.  The Mets didn't score, the game went on.

The second:  With the bases loaded in the top of the 12th with two outs and two strikes on Matt Treanor, Ramon Ramirez threw a belt high fastball that was lined up the middle for the deciding hit.  No one should be giving up game winning hits to Matt Treanor, especially when you have him in a 1-2 hole.  Ramon Ramirez found a way to do it.  After Jason Bay struck out to end the game (how fitting), the Mets fell below the .500 mark for the first time in 2012.

Where do they go from here?  Before answering that question, the following must be pointed out:  Dillon Gee is most likely lost for the season after a blood clot was found in his pitching shoulder - a blood clot that resulted in surgery.  Johan Santana has landed on the disabled list with an injured ankle, and it's unknown how effective he'll be when he does return.  Terry Collins has done a terrible job with bullpen management.  Examples include bringing Tim Byrdak into a game to face consecutive right handed hitters, and his demented reliance on Miguel Batista in tight games.  The majority of the games over this 1-9 stretch have been close, and when bullpen management is poor during close losses, it ends up looking that much more glaring.  Again, Terry Collins has not been gifted with a solid bullpen.  But it's his job to manage what he has.

With that said, it's entirely possible that once Dillon Gee went down and Johan Santana began to falter, the front office simply decided it wasn't worth it to deal any of its valuable prospects for bullpen help or a bat for the bench.  They may have decided that the Mets' chances had shrunk significantly, and that the best bet would be to hang onto all of their potential 2013 contributors and ride this thing out.  And if that's the case, you really can't blame them.  Now that it's reached this point (5 games back of the 2nd Wild Card spot, down three fifths of their Opening Day rotation), the following should be the course of action:

-Jordany Valdespin needs to start every game where the Mets are opposed by a right hander.  Whether those starts come in left field or center field, they have to come.  If the Mets elect to give Daniel Murphy a day off, the starter at 2nd base should be Valdespin - not Ronny Cedeno.  You start Valdespin because he's clearly one of your best eight players, and because Valdespin playing every day should help the Mets to determine whether or not he should be in their plans for 2013 and beyond. 

-Daniel Murphy needs to start every day.  Terry Collins' lineups against lefties have gotten to the point of being comical.  Murphy is hitting .274 against lefties this year, and there's absolutely no reason for him to be on the bench against them...especially considering Ronny Cedeno is his replacement. 

-Mike Nickeas needs to be DFA'd.  As was pointed out earlier, Mike Nickeas is simply not a Major League Caliber hitter.  He's hitting .172 with a .245 OBP.  Whether it's for Lucas May or someone else off the scrap heap, it's time for Nickeas to be sent down.  Nice guy, awful player.

-Against right handed pitching, Kirk Nieuwenhuis needs to start over Andres Torres in Center Field.  Even with his rising strikeout total and recent slump, Nieuwenhuis may be a part of the Mets' long-term plans - whether it's as a platoon guy or something more.  Torres is not a part of the plan and is hitting .222 while playing sub-par defense.

There have been some positives during the hellish start to the second half:  In a bullpen that has been the worst in the Majors, Josh Edgin has come up and excelled.  Hopefully he can continue to be a solid contributor and become a key piece going forward.  Pedro Beato has shown flashes.  Daniel Murphy has been on fire.  David Wright has continued to be incredible.  Jonathon Niese has bounced back from a rough last start before the break, and is hopefully on his way to putting together his first truly successful complete season.    

Going forward, regardless of his rough start last night in Buffalo, Matt Harvey should be called up to make the start Thursday in Arizona.  No one expects Harvey to be terrific right away, or to not hit any rough patches.  However, he's clearly the best option.  And in a season that is turning in the wrong direction, Harvey can get some valuable Major League experience at the very least or be a potential contributor to a turnaround if things start to break right.  If Jenrry Mejia continues to improve in his relief appearances, he should be added to the pen in the near-term...as it seems the Mets see him as a relief arm.

A team most expected to be a non-contending last place club sits at 47-48 on July 22nd.  Fans who had no expectations are now angry at a team that's still exceeding them.  And that's their right.  Still, it's important to keep the big picture in view.  The big picture, is that even through this brutal stretch, the team has continued to show fight (unlike some of their recent incarnations).  During the 1-9 clip, everything that can go wrong has gone wrong.

2012 was seen as a rebuilding year,but it's the fans' right to hope for more.  Coming off two consecutive seasons of second half fades that followed solid first halves, it's imperative for the 2012 Mets to get this thing under control.  To show the fans that the team is indeed headed in the right direction.  If they catch fire, the Playoffs still aren't a far fetched possibility - not with 67 games left and a 5 game deficit.  However, the Mets don't have to catch fire and reach the Postseason in order to make 2012 a successful season that helps them springboard into 2013 - a season that could have Zack Wheeler in the rotation to open the year.  They simply need to gather themselves and not allow this slide to become a repeat of 2010 and 2011 (even though 2011 was negatively affected by the front office with an eye towards the future).  They need to get back on track, because attendance is driven by wins, and (for now) payroll is driven by attendance.  Therefore, regardless of how much promise this team has and how bright their future may be, wins and losses matter for them more than they do for most of the other clubs.