Thursday, May 5, 2011
I Reject Your Hypothesis
It's been all over the place the last few days. It's been on blogs, on ESPN, and on Twitter. It's even been uttered by Gary Cohen in the SNY booth: What are the Mets going to do with Jose Reyes? If they decide to trade him, when will they pull the trigger? Who are his suitors? What can they get in return? It's becoming exceedingly difficult to ignore the avalanche of speculation that's been thrown around recently regarding Jose Reyes. It's beginning to anger most Mets fans, who know from watching him play over the last 9 seasons that Jose Reyes should go absolutely nowhere. So, what is there to do?
You can believe that Sandy Alderson - he of the Ivy league education and decades of experience as an executive in Major League Baseball, is a moron. Then you can go ahead and believe that everyone who's advising Sandy Alderson is also a complete moron. After convincing yourself of those two things, you'll have to convince yourself that the owners of the Mets have no interest in drawing fans, selling merchandise, or generating revenue in any other way. No, they'd rather go bankrupt. You'll have to believe that Fred and Jeff Wilpon and whoever the minority ownership consists of are willing to watch the New York Mets franchise spiral into oblivion. The above isn't believable, is it? Well, it would take an army of morons and owners with no interest in making money to let Jose Reyes leave the Mets. The prior sentence is why I believe this is all media speculation, and why I reject their hypothesis.
Take the following into account:
-Jose Reyes is 27 years old. He is one of the most dynamic offensive players in baseball (currently on pace to hit .313 with a .363 OBP with 100 runs scored, 219 Hits, 52 Doubles, 16 Triples, and 57 Stolen Bases). As if that isn't enough, he plays a prime position (Shortstop) at a Gold Glove level. That's the strictly on field stuff. Contrary to what people like to say, this is not an "all legs" player who will deteriorate as soon as he begins to lose a bit of his speed. This is a once in a generation talent, not Tony Womack.
-Along with David Wright, Jose Reyes is the face of the Mets. He is the one player fans come to the ballpark always excited to see (sans a healthy Johan Santana). The team markets itself around Reyes and Wright. In the face of the Madoff situation (even with how unfairly the Media have smeared the Wilpon's), sagging attendance, and the poor on field performance of 2009 and 2010, letting Jose Reyes go would be ridiculous. It would be even more ridiculous for the Mets to let him go during or after the 2011 season cosidering....
-The Mets have at least $40 million dollars coming off the books after this season (close to $60 million if Francisco Rodriguez's option doesn't vest). If there was any offseason where the Mets have payroll flexibility, it's the upcoming one. With all of that money coming off the books, and the new minority ownership scheduled to be finalized in the next few weeks, it's clear that the Mets can afford to pay Jose Reyes. Big market teams do not let franchise players in their prime (who also happen to be the face of that respective franchise) walk out the door (nor do they trade them). I invite anyone to find one example of a healthy player 28 or younger with the stature of Reyes who was discarded by his large market team.
...To recap, there is no reason to even begin to consider trading Jose Reyes. There is no reason to let him leave via Free Agency. That conclusion can be reached by simply looking at his stats. When you combine those stats with the impact he has in the clubhouse, and the fan mutiny that would be caused if the Mets let him go, it becomes unfathomable that the Mets could be that shortsighted.
I'll again state that I reject the media's hypothesis. The Mets don't have to trade Jose Reyes, the Mets don't want to trade Jose Reyes, and the Mets won't trade Jose Reyes. They'll re-sign him, because it makes no sense not to.