Thursday, May 5, 2011

I Reject Your Hypothesis


It's been all over the place the last few days. It's been on blogs, on ESPN, and on Twitter. It's even been uttered by Gary Cohen in the SNY booth: What are the Mets going to do with Jose Reyes? If they decide to trade him, when will they pull the trigger? Who are his suitors? What can they get in return? It's becoming exceedingly difficult to ignore the avalanche of speculation that's been thrown around recently regarding Jose Reyes. It's beginning to anger most Mets fans, who know from watching him play over the last 9 seasons that Jose Reyes should go absolutely nowhere. So, what is there to do?

You can believe that Sandy Alderson - he of the Ivy league education and decades of experience as an executive in Major League Baseball, is a moron. Then you can go ahead and believe that everyone who's advising Sandy Alderson is also a complete moron. After convincing yourself of those two things, you'll have to convince yourself that the owners of the Mets have no interest in drawing fans, selling merchandise, or generating revenue in any other way. No, they'd rather go bankrupt. You'll have to believe that Fred and Jeff Wilpon and whoever the minority ownership consists of are willing to watch the New York Mets franchise spiral into oblivion. The above isn't believable, is it? Well, it would take an army of morons and owners with no interest in making money to let Jose Reyes leave the Mets. The prior sentence is why I believe this is all media speculation, and why I reject their hypothesis.

Take the following into account:

-Jose Reyes is 27 years old. He is one of the most dynamic offensive players in baseball (currently on pace to hit .313 with a .363 OBP with 100 runs scored, 219 Hits, 52 Doubles, 16 Triples, and 57 Stolen Bases). As if that isn't enough, he plays a prime position (Shortstop) at a Gold Glove level. That's the strictly on field stuff. Contrary to what people like to say, this is not an "all legs" player who will deteriorate as soon as he begins to lose a bit of his speed. This is a once in a generation talent, not Tony Womack.

-Along with David Wright, Jose Reyes is the face of the Mets. He is the one player fans come to the ballpark always excited to see (sans a healthy Johan Santana). The team markets itself around Reyes and Wright. In the face of the Madoff situation (even with how unfairly the Media have smeared the Wilpon's), sagging attendance, and the poor on field performance of 2009 and 2010, letting Jose Reyes go would be ridiculous. It would be even more ridiculous for the Mets to let him go during or after the 2011 season cosidering....

-The Mets have at least $40 million dollars coming off the books after this season (close to $60 million if Francisco Rodriguez's option doesn't vest). If there was any offseason where the Mets have payroll flexibility, it's the upcoming one. With all of that money coming off the books, and the new minority ownership scheduled to be finalized in the next few weeks, it's clear that the Mets can afford to pay Jose Reyes. Big market teams do not let franchise players in their prime (who also happen to be the face of that respective franchise) walk out the door (nor do they trade them). I invite anyone to find one example of a healthy player 28 or younger with the stature of Reyes who was discarded by his large market team.

...To recap, there is no reason to even begin to consider trading Jose Reyes. There is no reason to let him leave via Free Agency. That conclusion can be reached by simply looking at his stats. When you combine those stats with the impact he has in the clubhouse, and the fan mutiny that would be caused if the Mets let him go, it becomes unfathomable that the Mets could be that shortsighted.

So...

I'll again state that I reject the media's hypothesis. The Mets don't have to trade Jose Reyes, the Mets don't want to trade Jose Reyes, and the Mets won't trade Jose Reyes. They'll re-sign him, because it makes no sense not to.

12 comments:

Phlavio said...

I hope you are right about things. I do want to see what teams would offer. It's morbid curiosity. That's all.

Chris said...

I think they have to trade him. He is injury prone. Look how much time he's missed the past few years. Would you invest a lot of money in a car if it's history said it broke down a lot? That's the way Alderson thinks and that's why I think he's getting traded. He's young but misses a lot of games. Get some top prospects for him and use that payroll flexibility to go get Pujols or some other top FA that will be the same draw he is. I would hate to see us re-sign him, try to build around him, and him only play 90 games a year.

Marc said...

Chris,

Reyes is injured prone? Really. I think that is going to far. He is a guy who had some leg troubles as a baby, playe from 2005-May 2009 with absoultely no problems whatsover. Had a season ending injury which was handled horribly by the Mets brass. Then rehabbed and came back in 2010, suffered a freak body chemistry related injury and played most of the season. Reyes is back to being what he was in 2005-08. He is the most coveted potential free agent in baseball right now and the mets would be moranic to not retain him for that reason alone.

ads said...

Chris, you say he's injury prone. Not sure I agree. Yes, his first 2 season were derailed by an ankle sprain and a hamstring injury, but then he was healthy for 4 straight seasons. Then you had 2009 where he only played in 36 games but played in 133 last year, despite the Thyroid issue (which doesn't count as injury prone). So all told, there were 3 "lost" season since Reyes debuted in 2003. His rookie season was cut short, so was his sophomore season and then 2009. He played in 133 games last season and hasn't missed a game this season due to injury. Reyes is not injury prone, if there is such a thing. I agree with the post, that at the end of the day, it would be a mistake to trade Reyes or let him go to free agency.

Aaron said...

I'm sure I read this somewhere, so not an original idea. But here goes....

Jose Reyes loves New York and wants to stay.

The Mets are not a winning team this season.

So trade Jose at the deadline to the Giants or the Reds or whoever will pony up the most. Get back at least one very good prospect who can help in '12 or '13 and beyond.

Then, "resign" Jose in the off-season with the aforementioned $40-$60 million coming off the books.

New York is the heart of the Dominican Diaspora, Jose and his family are very happy on Long Island. It won't be cheap, but as long as the Mets are willing to match the high offer, Jose will come back even if he's traded. Time for the Mets to have their cake and eat it too.

Matt said...

I invite anyone to find one example of a healthy player 28 or younger with the stature of Reyes who was discarded by his large market team.

Mike Piazza. By the Dodgers.

Matt said...

Piazza was 29, but still...

Mark said...

Matt,
Piazza was just short of thirty years old when traded by the Dodgers......

Arnold said...

Piazza?

How did that work out for the Dodgers and the Mets?

Twas much better to receive Piazza then to give him up. Same for Jose.

To Met Mangagement: If you let Reyes go think of the first time he returns to New York. The "Jose, Jose, Jose" chants will be deafening. You will think you are in a European soccer stadium.

Jose injury prone? An idiotic urban legend!!!

Brian said...

Fred Lynn - Boston Red Sox 28 yo - traded to the Angels.

And the best example:

Babe Ruth - Boston Red Sox 24 y0 - sold to the Yankees.

jamsbar7 said...

Trading and re-signing him is not a realisitic option. I don't think any team will give up anything big for him unless they sign him to a contract. Which could complicate trading him.

Also, he has been injury prone and it is a factor in signing anyone too a ~7yr $120mm contract.

Overall i want to resign him as long as his l/t contact doesnt hinder futre plans to sign other good players to big contacts(plus, right now he soo hot lol hard to make these comments, its a what have you done for you lately world.)

I think it comes down to how the Mets want to spend their money. He's def not worth the $ imo but if money is not a factor id obv want to keep him, he's a top 10 SS and a homegwon Met, face of franchise ect. But speed is cheap. Mookie Wilson waas exciting but i wouldnt sign him to a hugh contract. If they decide they want to spend on a top flight player that has had more consistent dependable health record, i wouldnt blame them. As long as they have a plan....I just dont see where else they would spend the money besides starting pitching (another position with injusry bug). Maybe Rf but they have Bay there's Pagan and Pride has looked good, FMart and Kirk Nieuenhous are solid prspects, they could try to go young. Rest of lineup seems entrenched - Ike, Wright, Murphy/platoon partner, Thole/platoon partner, are pretty entrenched..i actually think Mets are going to make run at wildcard if they keep them together and they stay healthy...

Sparks said...

I reject the entire premise of your 2nd paragraph. Look in the stands. Look at the standings. That ship has sailed. Oblivion has already been reached.

I could never have imagined there would be so much hand-wringing over removing pieces from a last-place team that hasn't made the playoffs in half a decade.

Getting more specific to Reyes, sure, if you're going to live and die with your leadoff hitter--as the Mets have stupidly and largely unsuccessfully done for the better part of the last 10 years--there's none better than Reyes, but that's the whole point: there are other, better ways to build a baseball team. The Phillies don't have anything close to Jose Reyes, and it doesn't seem to be hurting them any.